Gen Z Will Be The Last White-Majority Generation In The US, According To Recent Data

According to recent census data, Generation Z will be the last generation in the U.S. to have a white majority, with the "majority minority" arising with Generation Alpha (those born post-2010). Projections suggest that by 2045, non-Hispanic whites will comprise less than half of the overall U.S. population. However, according to The Hill, by 2050, this demographic will represent under 40% of the under-18 population.

Gen Z Will Be the Last White-Majority Generation in the U.S., according to Recent Data

However, this information is debated. Some scholars assert that these figures are either incorrect or misleading, suggesting that the concept of a “majority-minority” America might be a myth. The topic is controversial, particularly given America's history with slavery and persisting patterns of discrimination against minorities and immigrants.

Interestingly, 2020 census data reveals increasing racial diversity among different age groups. For instance, non-Hispanic white individuals make up 77% of those over 75, 67% of those between 55-64, and only 47% of America's children.

Yet, the story is more complex. Increasing numbers of Americans identify with more than one race. By 2045, over 18 million people will claim two or more races. If these individuals are removed from the total count, the non-Hispanic white population surges from 49% to 52%. As Richard Alba of City University of New York states, whites will remain a significant group in America for the foreseeable future.

The U.S. census, however, may need revision. Alba contends that its racial and ethnic categorization methods are outdated. In the past, non-Hispanic whites comprised about 80% of the population, with black, Hispanic, Asian Americans, and others sharing the remaining 20%. But today, multiracial Americans are the fastest-growing racial category.

This growth is likely even underestimated. The way America labels mixed-race individuals, drawing from traditions like the racist “one-drop” rule from the 1600s, is up for debate. Census classifications also contain inconsistencies, such as categorizing those of Middle Eastern or North African descent as white. Alba, alongside other researchers, opined in 2021 that the notion of a looming majority-minority America is both incorrect and divisive. Some have co-opted this narrative into the “replacement theory,” which argues that white populations are being systematically replaced.

Others claim that most white Americans appear receptive to the idea of growing multiracial populations and families. Alba notes a decrease in segregation, with many white Americans living in racially diverse neighborhoods. Demographers emphasize the need for racial diversity for the country's future economic prosperity. With an aging population and declining birthrate, the U.S. requires immigrants to sustain the workforce. New immigrants, particularly from Latin America, contribute to a younger demographic.

Regardless of how many experts claim that racial diversity will help the economy, it's difficult to believe that a higher influx of immigrants and more diversity will somehow help the country as a whole, especially when it comes to an economy that is overrun with inflation, overpriced groceries, and sky-high interest rates. One thing experts certainly get right is the birth rate. The USA's birth rate is in decline; to put things into perspective, there were 600,000 fewer births between 2007 and 2013, which was a 13% reduction. Furthermore, the highest fertility rates between 2018 and 2020 belong to Hispanic women, followed by black women, Native American women, and Asian women. White women have the lowest birth rate out of all of these demographics. This has certainly contributed to the ever-increasing number of minorities that are being born into society while the white population is in decline.

Many people claim that this is a non-issue, that we shouldn't care at all about the racial makeup of the United States. After all, we're a melting pot. But it's disingenuous at best to pretend like this isn't an issue that will cause significant changes in the future.

"If Nigerians became a minority in Nigeria within the span of 65 years—say, as the result of a massive influx of Icelandic immigration—wouldn't most people consider that to be a little bit odd? Wouldn't some even be justified in considering it a cause for political concern?" commentator and author Michael Knowles tweeted.

We shouldn't be afraid to be taken aback by these statistics and ask ourselves seriously what the implications might be for the future. Whether or not you like it, the U.S. has been a majority white country since our inception in 1776. Acknowledging that doesn't automatically mean we shouldn't accept any other cultures or races into our homeland, but it does mean that things will shift drastically if the majority suddenly becomes a minority. That will no doubt change the future culture of America and very likely cause more division, even furthered by the fact that mainstream society is discouraging us from having a frank discussion about this "majority minority." When we're not allowed to talk about a very real issue that affects all of us, we're going to see more and more people get upset by the fact that they are silenced and ignored.

Some experts claim that immigration is beneficial for the U.S., not only contributing to the economy but also supporting systems like Social Security and Medicare. While immigration has some benefits, the mass immigration that the U.S. has allowed over the last couple of decades has not been good for Americans, particularly working-class folks whose wages have been cut and whose jobs have been stolen.

There's a call for future censuses to provide a more accurate representation of multiracial America. Since 2000, the census has allowed individuals to identify with more than one race. William Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, proposes new categories for the 2030 census, allowing respondents to check multiple “origin” categories and specify their racial or ethnic identities. This could foster a deeper understanding of race and ethnicity in America.

Regardless of how future censuses are held, we're going to have to figure out how we can move forward as a cohesive country when we see the racial and cultural fabric of America transform rapidly before our eyes. As idealistic as diversity sounds, there are many difficulties that come along with it, and these difficulties may result in drastic changes to our society that we aren't prepared for.

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